The global freight market is entering a new cycle of uncertainty. With the United States ending Section 321 de minimis exemptions and ocean freight regaining competitiveness, the outlook for air cargo in the coming months is far from predictable.
Key Market Shifts
1. From B2C to B2B2C
Recent U.S. policy changes are reshaping e-commerce supply chains. Instead of direct business-to-consumer (B2C) air shipments, companies are increasingly relying on business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) models, supported by warehouse inventory. This shift reduces overall demand for air cargo.
2. Ocean Freight Recovery via the Suez Canal
Improved transit times and lower costs are drawing more goods from South Asia and Southeast Asia back to ocean freight. This trend, combined with tariff-driven diversification in sourcing strategies, is shifting attention toward countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India.
3. High-Value Goods Keep Air Cargo Relevant
Despite these challenges, demand for time-sensitive, high-value products — such as AI-related hardware, servers, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals — remains strong. This is keeping specific air freight corridors, particularly from Southeast Asia and Taiwan, under pressure.
What Industry Leaders Are Saying
According to Mads Ravn, President of DSV Air & Sea U.S., the coming months will likely bring volatility:
- Tariffs may drive companies to seek alternative trade routes or sourcing strategies
- Urgent shipments could cause sudden spikes in air cargo demand, straining limited capacity
- If cost concerns dominate, more shippers may pivot to ocean freight or nearshoring, reducing overall air demand
Navigating the Uncertainty
For businesses, the key lies in flexibility and foresight:
- Diversify sourcing to reduce exposure to policy risks
- Plan inventory and capacity allocation proactively
- Balance speed, cost, and resilience in transport strategies
For air cargo carriers and freight forwarders, closely monitoring trade policies and optimizing network capacity will be critical to staying competitive.
Conclusion
The global air freight market is moving into a period of “volatility within opportunity.” While policy changes and ocean freight recovery present headwinds, persistent demand for high-value, time-critical goods will continue to sustain certain air trade lanes. Companies that adapt quickly — with flexible logistics strategies and diversified supply chains — will be best positioned to navigate the turbulence ahead.