he global e-commerce boom continues to reshape the air cargo industry. Yet, recent shifts in trade policy are putting unprecedented pressure on one of the busiest trade lanes: China–US air freight capacity has plunged by 30%.
According to the latest whitepaper from The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), two major policy changes in the U.S. — tariff increases and the removal of de minimis exemptions — have triggered a sharp decline in volumes from Mainland China and Hong Kong. While a short-term spike occurred when shippers rushed to move goods ahead of new rules, the overall downward trend remains evident.
At the same time, Asia-Pacific markets outside China are showing faster recovery and growth, with strong e-commerce flows to both the U.S. and Europe. This signals a gradual rebalancing of global trade routes and highlights new opportunities beyond traditional hubs.
The TIACA report also forecasts that e-commerce will represent 50% of transpacific air cargo demand by 2024, marking a structural shift that logistics providers cannot ignore. To navigate these challenges, the industry will need to double down on digitalization, innovation, and cross-sector collaboration to build a more resilient and sustainable ecosystem.